PENDULUM RESEARCH
THE PENDULUM PAPER
November 16th, 2025
Well, we’re finally here. We’ve done it – after decades of swinging the pendulum, we’ve finally broken it. Gold has been swinging from the rafters at around the $4,000 mark to see if sanity would prevail, or if we would cross the financial rubicon of asset price growth measured in dollars – at all costs.
Fifty year home mortgages. Fifteen year car loans. Trumpbux redux. Altman asking for alms. Bi-annual public company reporting in the capital market. All accompanied by a sudden 30 bps drop in the SOFR. Oiling the gears of growth at all costs. Because, like a Mongolian interprovincial train, the cars may jump off the track from time to time, but as long as the entire train doesn’t derail, all is well.
Economic dogmas blend and melting pot into one. In Communist Vietnam, a call – really a soft demand, that the country must grow at 10% per year per annum for 10 years – or else. In Capitalist America, the government cracking its knuckles and stretching its long-ignored Leninist muscles, waking up the State after a long hibernation period to take over the means of production in such fields as rare earths, computing, and – one that Lenin himself would applaud at – steel. But capitalists are all about small government and the invisible hand? Au contraire, says the Trump administration. What’s next – ‘’IPO’’ing off government-owned assets by putting only 5% of the total float on the stock market ala a government-owned airline? Trump is letting his hammer and sickle flag fly, draped in the stars and stripes.
All together, a tacit admission that assets priced in dollars can no longer be reined in, so instead let it ride. It’s off to the races – the most we can do is provide access to an ever-expensive property ladder with multigenerational mortgages. Forget mark-to-market, We’ve seen this before in Southeast Asia – it’s called Mark-to-Buddha. Pray at the altar and light your incense before listing your property on the market at ever increasingly nosebleed prices. Rinse and repeat. Now that the financial exchange mechanism previously known as the ‘US stock market’ is now effectively the AI market, all efforts must be made to fatten the red heifer at all costs – rents and restaurant prices be damned. Until, of course, the red heifer gets sacrificed at the altar of cost expediency. It is, after all, prophecy.
Watch the revolving door at the Fed. People-pleasers like Miran on the way in, whereas those advocating for Greek-style austerity financial medicine are tantamount to those blaspheming someone’s mother. Serious back and forth banter at the Fed about inflation control is about as vigorous as the dead goat the Kyrgyz use to play their iteration of horse polo called kok-boru – and the Trump administration couldn’t be happier that the nuisance topic called rising prices for the average American is done and dusted. Repeat after me – the 50 bps December rate cut will solve all your woes and worries – just don’t look at the consumer’s ever-thinner wallet. And don’t forget to check out that low hanging fruit blooming all over the branches of the gold miners. It’s off to the races, and the asset price road ahead is like a Dakar rally – hang on to your rollcage.
Disclaimer: The above is for general informational purposes only and is not investment advice nor does it constitute an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell a particular financial instrument. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile or the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this material. Historic information regarding performance is not indicative of future results and investors should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized.
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